Bernard Jackman has admitted the Dragons need near perfection in their two remaining ties if they are to make the European Challenge Cup knockout stages.
The head coach watched his team fall to a 27-25 defeat to Newcastle Falcons on Friday night at Rodney Parade, which now leaves them with no margin for error.
The Dragons have two remaining fixtures in their pool – away and then home to Bordeaux-Begles – but are now back in third place in Pool One and have only 11 points.
Jackman conceded: “”It’s not over yet, but we’ve made it a little hard for ourselves.
“But we really believe we can get something out of the back to back games with Bordeaux in January.
“We’d have to get five points at home and then win over there so we’ve said in the dressing room that we’ve been the masters of our own downfall tonight, and the reaction is to go to Bordeaux and win there.
“Nineteen points gives you a fair chance of getting out the group, and if we get a bonus point here then 20 points would be a really good haul.”
The Falcons raced into an early lead following tries from Adam Radwan and Zach Kibirige.
The Dragons, though, fought back when hooker Elliot Dee scored from a driving maul before adding another try on 22 minutes which Gavin Henson converted before slotting over a penalty.
Newcastle led 24-17 at half-time after a penalty from Joel Hodgson and a converted try by Gary Graham.
Although Ashton Hewitt went over for the hosts early in the second half, a successful 40 metre penalty from Hodgson on 66 minutes restored Newcastle’s breathing space.
After both sides saw further tries disallowed, it was the English side who closed out a fourth straight European win.
“I thought we gifted them 24 points in the first half,” added Jackman.
“We backed ourselves to come back and we showed loads of courage and heart, but sometimes when you are that generous you cant claw your way back into the game.
“The players must have felt with two minutes to go that they were going to go and win it, but we weren’t as clinical as we needed to be and there were some strange decisions at the end there.
“But the learning from us is don’t gift teams those scores, if you look at the three tries Newcastle scored they didn’t really have to work for them, so we need to be smarter.
“When you play with fire you get burnt.”