In part two of Dai Sport’s regional health check ahead of the new rugby season, Geraint Powell puts his stethoscope next to the heart of the Scarlets to determine whether or not they can maintain the healthy beat of last season.

 

If the Ospreys region has been mostly confined to the shadows this summer (https://www.dai-sport.com/ospreys-ready-fly-back-shadows/), the Scarlets region has inevitably been in the limelight as a result of their scintillating romp to the Guinness Pro12 title last season with comfortable play-off wins in Dublin over Leinster (at the RDS) and Munster (at the Aviva).

As if that was not enough to secure media attention, to compensate for the loss of Liam Williams to Saracens they then secured the services of the somewhat stranded Leigh Halfpenny as Williams’ replacement on a dual central contract, 60% funded by the Welsh Rugby Union.  If any team can rediscover Halfpenny’s early career attacking mojo, it will be the Scarlets.

They are also now unlikely to leave many points out on the pitch through missed kicks.

Kiwi head coach Wayne Pivac has built a solid coaching set-up around him, with backs coach Stephen Jones earning many plaudits last season with the calibre of the Scarlets’ attacking play.  There have been some astute player signings in recent years, notably the dependable, guiding Hadleigh Parkes at centre.

At full strength, in expansive rugby dry conditions for the title holders, the potential offensive firepower of a back division that could contain some or all of Jonathan Davies, Scott Williams, Halfpenny, Steff Evans and Johnny McNicholl (ex-Crusaders) is the stuff of nightmares for opposition defence coaches if the Scarlets get good front foot or sudden turnover ball.

They have an embarrassment of riches in terms of variety at scrum-half options, too.

To have all of this in a period where the laws and their interpretation by match officials are undoubtedly favouring any expansive attacking team is just the icing on the cake.  At full strength, the Scarlets should be able to beat many teams with 40% of the possession.

The issues for the Scarlets are more likely to be how many injuries they sustain and/or how they cope with the Test window absences of star players.  As with all the Welsh regions, given the long-term structural deficiencies and the negative financial consequences flowing directly from them, the depth of their squad is not as great as they would ideally wish.

A decent match-day 23 can be picked from a full squad, including a back-up front row of the calibre of Werner Kruger, Ryan Elias and Wyn Jones, and the only position where the Scarlets look “light” is at No.8 and where they have been short of a top quality ball-carrier since Ben Morgan departed for Gloucester five years ago.

Quality players such as John Barclay, Aaron Shingler and the maverick poacher James Davies will be expected to cover for and offset this shortcoming once again this season, in the knowledge that many teams will be trying to drag the Scarlets into a war of attrition arm wrestle and deny them quality possession at source.

Unless young Jack Condy breaks through rapidly this season, I would expect a concerted effort to attract versatile back row forward Ross Moriarty from Gloucester next summer on a dual central contract.  The likelihood is that the resuscitated lock Tadhg Beirne will return to Ireland at the end of the season to further his Test rugby aspirations, notwithstanding the risks highlighted by Robin Copeland’s return home, so the 40% funding for Moriarty should be there if another lock progresses sufficiently this season from within the squad to internally replace Beirne.

The Scarlets will be pleased to have been drawn in Conference B of the expanded Pro14, which of the heavyweights includes only the ever formidable Leinster province and an Ulster province transitioning from the IRFU enforced departure of Ruan Pienaar and beset with other unavailable players.

Their Champions Cup pool could have been far worse than Toulon, Bath and (critically in terms of a best runner-up qualification from this pool) Treviso, although the precise fixture schedule will be important in terms of generating early wins and momentum.

What is equally important, after an impressive effort to increase season ticket sales, after finally securing a main shirt sponsor this week, and in persuading Halfpenny to join them rather than return to the Arms Park, is a good start to quickly build momentum and increase devolved income streams.

For all the financial assistance provided by Carmarthen Council in relation to the stadium, including the outstanding loan repayable in 2023, it is unrealistic to expect the funding directors to keep covering annual £1.5 million losses as they had to do in the last reported financial year of 2015-16.

That is simply unsustainable in the medium term, let alone the longer term.

The likelihood, barring an injury crisis and/or a prolonged wet weather run of matches, is that the Scarlets will again be highly competitive in 2017-18.  They have a good player development and player enhancement culture, they play attractive rugby, and they are under a solid coaching set-up.

Their club heritage, as the only pre-2003 captive “big club” in the rural three counties of West Wales, is far less divisive than any club heritage further east.

And if any local rugby fan does have a problem with it, even after the pragmatic 2008 ditching of Llanelli from the regional brand, the Liberty Stadium and the Ospreys are only 20 minutes further east.

If there are problems further ahead, they are far more likely to be type caused by the underlying viability of the business, rather than by the competence of the rugby section within it.

Nevertheless, the Scarlets board are likely to be praying that the financial resilience of the business is not prematurely tested by poor results and especially when they currently have so much talent within the current squad.

These prayers are likely to be shared by the WRU, who have other more pressing regional problems further east to first attend to without any other region in financial distress.

Whilst there is a higher risk “speculate to accumulate” feel to the business, it should pay dividends again in 2017-18 and the Scarlets should be in contention in the play-offs to defend their (now) Guinness Pro14 title come the business end of the season next May.