The Ospreys have regularly been able to boss the West Wales derby. But with the Guinness Pro12 play-offs looming, Gareth Hughes reckons the Scarlets are now in the driving seat.
On Saturday at Parc y Scarlets, arguably one of the biggest games in Welsh rugby for a decade will take place, with both sides playing for play-off places, to decide the 3rd and 4th positions in the Pro12.
The Scarlets have turned their home ground into a fortress this season and with a potential full house will use that to their advantage. The Ospreys beat much-fancied Ulster last week, ending a run of defeats that threatened to derail their season.
They can take heart from that victory, but cannot take anything for granted, and need to secure at least a losing bonus point on Saturday.
The Scarlets on the other hand, enjoyed a superb win at Connacht, playing the champions off the park. They are playing a brand of eye-catching rugby that has brought them success, not least because it’s a philosophy they have stuck with.
The well-publicised difficulties that the Ospreys have endured recently will not have been cured by last week’s performance, yet they can take a great deal from the quality of their huge defensive display and the way they carved out and took their opportunities.
Steve Tandy selected a side that had a better shape to it than of late and, critically, players in form who seized their chance to show what they can do.
The clash between the two packs of forwards will be thunderous and the breakdown will be a focus for both teams. But without the inspirational, irascible rallying point of Alun Wyn Jones the Ospreys forwards have been out-muscled by Stade Francais and Treviso and absolutely smashed by the Cardiff Blues, where the Ospreys’ attention to detail, ball retention and discipline went badly missing.
With an overall 18-9 record of wins over the Scarlets, the Ospreys will be confident, yet the momentum would appear to be with the Scarlets. Their pack is powerful, mobile and has capable players in every position.
Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Samson Lee will test the Ospreys front row to its limit and the unsung work of John Barclay and Aaron Shingler will certainly keep the Ospreys back row honest.
It is a well-worn adage that games are won up front. Perhaps now, though, the game is about far more than mere physicality, but down to the forethought and planning during the week being pivotal to success.
Both sides have been under the microscope this week and it will be down to the work of the coaches to see who has coped with this level of scrutiny.
Wayne Pivac, after a stuttering start, has developed a side that plays with a smile on its face, confident in their skills and the players appear to be enjoying themselves.
Steve Tandy, though, has – at times – seemed perplexed by the failures of his team to close out games or to play to their undoubted potential. Both men will be under pressure on Saturday to come up with the right answers.
The Ospreys will not be intimidated by the task in hand and they will cope with the ferocity of the game, the partisan atmosphere and the importance of the match. They will see it as excellent preparation for what is to come.
But, they have shown themselves to be vulnerable this season. The indecision about selection at No.10 exemplifyies that, and Dan Biggar knows he needs a big game.
Even the excellent Rhys Webb has made costly errors of discipline borne out of frustration at the quality of performance of the team.
The Scarlets are playing with pace, power and precision and their passing and lines of running are of the highest class. Yet, on Saturday, they will need to impose this facet on the match and not be dragged into a scrappy game. That will not be an easy task.
The Ospreys will know that they need to deny the Scarlets the ball and the space for their strike runners to dictate the pace of the game.
Nigel Owens, the referee, will need to be watching this very carefully and make every effort to allow the game to flow.
There are significant match-ups across the teams; Steff Evans against Keelan Giles is just one mouth-watering prospect, but what about the others: James King against John Barclay; Webb against Gareth Davies; Johnny McNichol against Dan Evans.
Of no less significance will be the contest of Hadleigh Parkes or Scott Williams matched against a revitalised, and thankfully injury free, Ashley Beck in the centre – the outcome of the game could well be decided by their duel.
Who will win? Ordinarily, the all-round quality of the Ospreys would have them installed as favourites. The Ospreys can dig into the vault of their success whilst for the Scarlets it has been a long time since they were in touching distance of a trophy.
But, momentum is often the key to success and the impetus is certainly at first sight with Scarlets. The mind games between Pivac and Tandy will be less public than usual, not only out of mutual respect but that’s how they both prefer it.
The susceptibilities of the Ospreys with seven league defeats will not have disappeared by beating Ulster and some of the demons will remain. That is what Tandy will have spent all week trying to overcome.
The possibility of AWJ being made available for this match could be no more than an attempt to unsettle the opposition, or simply a sign of how vulnerable the Ospreys actually feel that they need their talismanic forward on the pitch.
Perhaps, Tandy will adopt a game plan designed to get the Scarlets to punch themselves out or he could look to strangle the game. Whichever way he goes, it promises be a titanic, absorbing struggle.
Being the away side means that all the Ospreys have to do is secure a win or at least get what they came for ‘and get out of ‘Dodge’.
The Scarlets must realise that and avoid being dragged into an arm wrestle. They must but impose themselves, so that when they get the opportunity to impress their fluent game upon proceedings, they take it.
They do not have to entertain the crowd as this is a match solely about the all-important result.