Wales have ended their autumn series with a 75% win ratio, but a much higher proportion of ranting among the headlines. Geraint Powell of The Viet Gwent blog examines whether Rob Howley is the right target for the hysteria or whether some are missing the point. In fact, missing 10 points.

 

1) This is the hysterical era of the 24 hour news channels and of social media, and of the traditional media struggling to develop a digital era business model.  Cool heads and measured analysis are in very limited supply.

One would expect the traditional rugby media to know and to behave better than social media but, with several notable exceptions, this has sadly not been the case this month.  Panic attacks galore.  Wales won 3 Autumn International matches for the first time since 2002, but some of the media reaction would have tended to suggest that the end of the world was close on nigh.  Yes, 3 of those wins in 2002 were against Romania, Fiji and Canada.  And the fourth match back then in 2002 was a 17-43 thumping by the All Blacks.

And the All Blacks were not in town this Autumn, and the 8-32 drubbing by the Wallabies on 5 November was bad even by traditional Welsh Autumn Internationals/Six Nations “first up woes” (a separate topic in itself), and the other 3 wins came against opponents with significant caveats (see below re: Argentina and South Africa).  But the history books will read “played 4, won 3” for the first Wales Autumn International campaign since 2002. Rob Howley will no doubt settle for this, after November 2012 and that injury marred troubled campaign of 4 defeats, even if elements of the attacking play currently leaves a lot to be desired.

(2) Evolution to a more expansive playing style is a process that will take time.  Plenty of time, without a strong WRU pyramid below to expedite it.

Welsh Test success at the hemisphere level between 2008-2013, and creditable World Cup performances in 2011 and 2015, was based on a limited physical game to maximise powerful physicality and to minimise weaker basic footballing skills.  A modern kick and chase game, so-called “Warrenball“, with minimal offloading risk and founded upon winning the collisions and dominating the gain line.  Not founded upon or underpinned by successful regions in Europe or silky skills (with several notable exceptions).

We had a very limited number of Test players operating within their comfort zone, and the lack of depth in Welsh rugby was once again graphically illustrated by the 40-6 demolition in June of the Wales “dirt trackers” by the Chiefs 2nd team in Hamilton.

Progress was always going to be very limited this month.  Japan (and former Highlanders) coach, Jamie Joseph, was clearly so confident that Wales wouldn’t play “Warrenball” at all in the midst of evolution/transition, for nothing slows down evolution more than temporary reverting to type, that he had his players defensively fan out across the field and so making a successful expansive game even harder for Wales.  And Jamie Joseph predicted correctly.

We shall learn more during the 6 Nations, but the World Cup remains a very long way off.  The reality is an anxiety in Welsh rugby based on the obvious progress being made by Ireland, who this calendar year have completed wins over South Africa, New Zealand and Australia, and by (a calendar year unbeaten, if they beat Australia again next Saturday) England and both countries underpinned by provincial and elite club strength.  The Irish have a solid set-up, the English have Eddie Jones and lots of resources and players.  We may be entering a period where their Test teams are simply stronger.  And we may not.

(3) The perceived pressure upon Rob Howley was more a media myth than founded in any reality.

One option was to appoint an interim “change manager” or transformation coach for this single season.  To approach Robbie Deans or Dave Rennie, or even Sir Graham Henry, and give them a mandate outside of the 2008-16 and 2017-19 regime, but one suspects that would have been a step too far for Warren Gatland.  This is his squad, as it should be.  And once that external option was not utilised, for whatever reason, that was it.

Martyn Phillips will no doubt sit down with Warren Gatland next September to plot the 2 year crack at the World Cup, and the coaching subject is no doubt dormant for the duration of Warren Gatland’s (hopefully reinvigorating) Lions sabbatical and thereafter until 2019 unless Warren Gatland instigates any changes.  It is doubtful Martyn Phillips will even be pondering himself instigating any Test coaching issues beyond 2019 succession planning, barring a disaster, for he has other more important foundational pyramidal structural issues to confront.

(4) Test team coaches are not there, and should not be there, to teach basic rugby footballing skills to Test players.

That is what the “mini-rugby to regions” rugby national pyramid and player supply chain is there to both teach and fine tune.  In Welsh rugby, there are serious shortcomings.  Alex Cuthbert, George North and Jonathan Davies are all Lions three quarters.  Yet Cuthbert was a late developer and still lacks some core footballing and defensive skills and exacerbated when he is off his game and his confidence is at a low ebb, North has not progressed at all since leaving the Scarlets for Northampton (in some skill sets, he has actually regressed), and Davies is still a weak punter who at times cannot draw his man and unleash others into space and as he demonstrated again last night in one spectacularly horrific attack that would have Carwyn James turning in his grave.

A residual suspicion that too many Welsh rugby players are currently happier in the gym than scanning, making decisions, and themselves outwitting and defeating the rugby defence in front of them.  A lack of thinking for themselves, reliant upon coached systems.  Dan Biggar stands too deep (and now has to watch his demeanour towards officials), the overall game management skills of Gareth Davies have not recently kept pace with his sniping attacking threat to defences, and Dan Lydiate still carries too little for a Test flanker of his calibre.  Gareth Anscombe, on the other hand, has to be reminded that he is no longer playing for the Chiefs and that he is surrounded by less naturally intuitive team mates.

It was perhaps no coincidence that the Wallabies match “first up woes” were also exacerbated by the twin pillars of stability comprising of Alun Wyn Jones and Taulupe Faletau both being absent, invariably the “go to” dependable calming influences in this squad over the last few seasons.

But this is primarily work for the regions, and lower down the pyramid in transforming the culture in relation to future generations.

(5) Tier 1 smaller rugby countries are harmed by a lack of player pool size and a lack of financial muscle.  But they do have a union controlled integrated supply chain to mitigate, apart from Welsh rugby that is.

Welsh rugby currently has 1 region focussed upon finding a new buyer, 1 region that is a city centre property redevelopment company with appended ancillary club rugby business, 1 region that is grappling with a permanent structural annual financial deficit, 1 region that is fretting over the financial implications for joint income streams of a co-tenant soccer club being relegated, and 1 region that is playing semi-pro rugby.

New Zealand’s 5 regions are all focussed upon winning Super Rugby and underpinning the All Blacks with superlative players.  No contest, on or off the paddock. 19 December 1953.

(6) Too many in the media can see how and where the lack of an integrated regional supply chain directly harms the Test team, but keep silent and focus on easy headlines.

Welsh rugby has had three players in recent seasons who could play “second five eighth” as a rugged enough footballing inside centre with a kicking game, the best way to kick start a wider and more expansive game.  Owen Williams is at Leicester.  James Hook is at Gloucester.  And Gavin Henson is at Bristol.  In the new era of limited marquee dual central contracts, all are in exile.  In that position the Scarlets have Hadley Parkes, the Blues have Rey Lee-Lo, and the Ospreys have Josh Matavesi.  None eligible to play for Wales.  Utter strategic madness.  The sooner that Owen Williams is brought home, the better.  I care not to which region, but we do need a physical footballing “second five eighth” option.

After all, Warren Gatland was in 2009 planning Gavin Henson at 12 and Jamie Roberts at 13 before the former’s off field issues ultimately wasted his natural footballing talents.

(7) Time has been wasted by the Welsh rugby media on headline grabbing and clickbait generating criticism of Rob Howley, in the absence of Warren Gatland, when more productive criticism could have been directed at Robin McBryde.  But if even Robin McBryde is going nowhere until after the 2019, which is the case, why ignore the real “elephant in the room”?  If anything, Wales need a specialist scrummaging coach.

The 2008-13 hemisphere level success was based on a solid scrum anchored by players that were the product of the pre-regions era.  Adam Jones, Duncan Jones, Gethin Jenkins, Paul James, Matthew Rees and Huw Bennett were not teenage products of the Welsh region rugby academies.  They came through, and were hardened by, the pre-2003 club system.

The regional supply chain at prop has become a trickle.  36 year old Gethin Jenkins cannot go on forever.  Samson Lee, Rob Evans, Nicky Smith and Tomas Francis (the latter not even a product of Welsh rugby) are promising young players, but they need to spend time with a specialist scrummaging coach.  The Welsh scrum is not consistently acceptable, in fact at times Welsh scrums can suddenly go hopelessly wrong and primarily due to a lack of 8 man cohesion and as can be seen in stadia where there is an overhead camera.  As Wales backs try more offloading, they are also likely to make more knock-ons and gift more opposition put-in scrums.  Especially in the transition phase.

The Wallabies had the humility to accept they needed to specifically toughen up their scrum, and brought in Mario Ledesma from Argentina to sort it out.  Wales also, I believe, need a specialist scrummaging coach.

(8)  It is increasingly clear that many of those in Welsh rugby that argue for free market independent regions (or professional teams or clubs, as they ideologically prefer) have a real problem.  They mostly don’t even comprehend even the basics of the free market economics they espouse.

If the regions are under financial stress, and they undoubtedly are, unattractive to attending fans and broadcasters, there is only the Wales national team through which to try and raise additional external revenue for them and for the RSA marquee dual central contracting regime.

The WRU Stadium has a 74,500 capacity.  The attendances were Australia (55,776), Argentina (50,175), Japan (73,696), South Africa (55,122).  The Tier 2 match against Japan was cheaply priced to just about fill the stadium, the other Tier 1 matches priced higher to clearly maximise their revenue earning rather than for maximising the crowd.  Only the All Blacks fill the stadium in November at full whack.  And we have the same people complaining that tickets should have been cheaper to fill the stadium!

If, e.g., the Wallabies match tickets would have needed to be £35 cheaper to get a full 74,500 crowd, the WRU would just be losing £35 from each of the 55,000 prepared to pay £70 and would overall be out of pocket in addition to damaging the Test brand through reckless price discounting.  Welcome to modern professional sport, and also to capitalist market economics red in claw and tooth.

Money is desperately needed, to fund all the expenditure demands upon the WRU from the professional players, the regions, the semi-pro clubs and the grassroots clubs.  The WRU simply does not have the luxury of just maximising crowds in the current business/trading environment.

(9) Argentina are a damned tired team.

They were in their defeat against Wales, in their last-ditch defeat against Scotland, and they were yesterday in their defeat against a 14 man England team for 75 minutes.  Their current lethargy is unsurprising.  In addition to their Rugby Championship Tests in Nelspruit, Hamilton and Perth, and a Rugby Championship home match against Australia in London, it was the debut season of the Jaguars in Super Rugby.  That comprised two trips to South Africa, in addition to the 4 match trip to New Zealand and Japan in between.  The only thing currently refreshed about these Los Pumas players is probably their air miles accounts…

But Argentina, as a point of principle, refused to freshen up their November squad by bringing in their exiled players from European clubs such as Juan Imhoff, Juan Figallo, Marcos Ayerza and Mariano Galarza.  Play in Argentina to play for Argentina.  Except the southern hemisphere conditioned Tomas Cubelli at the Brumbies in Australia…

(10) South African rugby, and their Springboks Test team, is in deep trouble.

Wales never beat the Springboks until 1999, nearly a century of defeats with one solitary draw in the mud of Cardiff in 1970.  Last night’s 27-13 Welsh win was actually flattering to the Springboks.  An unbelievable decline for the former Springboks juggernaut, and their historic rivalry with the All Blacks as the two global super powers of rugby union (link) .

Yes, they lost veteran stalwarts after the World Cup such as Schalk Burger, Victor Matfield (finally!) and the sublime on-field general Fourie Du Preez.  Yes, they had unfortunate season ending injuries to players of the calibre of Handre Pollard, Cobus Reinach (those two particularly galling for Springbok fans given the current lack of direction from half back) and Jan Serfontein during Super Rugby.  Yes, the injury and insufficient re-conditioning lists later got worse (Duane Vermeulen, Bismarck Du Plessis, Morne Steyn, Francois Louw, Coenie Oosthuizen amongst the players unavailable this November).  Yes, Eben Etzebeth and Willem Alberts were injured on this tour and Bryan Habana and Willie Le Roux were dropped as out of form ahead of the Wales game.

Nevertheless, South African rugby and the Springboks are in trouble.  The Rand is 15 to the €, with 300+ professional players in exile.  This has devastated the Springboks internal supply chain, with only beaten finalists the Lions (around Johannesburg) competitive against the NZ regions in 2016.  The Stormers secured a home quarter-final in Cape Town, where they were blown away 21-60 by the Chiefs.  Their other 4 regions failed to qualify for the knockout stages of Super Rugby.

Global rugby union does not need South Africa going the same way as the Pacific Islands, now primarily a feeder for overseas clubs and even for overseas unions.  We are talking about a rugby super power here, and not just in the pack, the land of Naas Botha, Danie Gerber, Johan Heunis and the du Plessis brothers in the 1980s.  The days of overseas Springboks must surely be coming to an end, currency notwithstanding.  No more cake and eating it, but some variety of “play in South Africa to play for South Africa”.

The centre in South African rugby has its governance problems and its political interference from above.  Provincial and regional structures are outdated, too much “independence” being “achieved” during the Apartheid isolation years and too little control by the Test coach.  Big provincial financial problems in the Cape, both east and west.  Their Super Rugby regions have radically different playing styles, e.g. the Lions playing a completely different game to the Stormers.  Before one adds a multitude of European/Japanese club styles, and the rush re-conditioning of such overseas players for Test rugby.  And Test rugby has been moving away from the narrow confrontational physical style preferred by many Afrikaner players in particular.  More of an aerobic challenge, driven by Antipodean rugby opinion formers and lawmakers.

And, as former All Blacks coach Laurie Mains alluded to earlier this year (link), South African rugby has seriously botched racial transformation.  Initial racial transformation should have been from the outset identifying the best non-white athletic talent at a young age and providing them with dedicated rugby places or scholarships into the schools that have produced so many Springboks e.g. Grey College in Bloemfontein, Paarl Gimnasium, Paarl Boys High, Paul Roos Gymnasium in Stellenbosch, Afrikaans Hoër Seunskool in Pretoria, and of course the Cape Town trio of Bishops/SACS/Rondebosch Boys High.  Amongst many others.

Attempting equality of opportunity, whilst retaining meritocracy at Test level.  And build from there, with maybe some transitional temporary quotas at provincial and regional level to aid the process in the early years.  Instead we have that oxymoron, “positive” discrimination.  All discrimination is positive for somebody and negative for somebody else, with meritocracy abandoned.  And through racial quotas at Test level sport at that!  And all to appease a South African government that is not very competent at its day job.  I think Nelson Mandela envisaged a multi-racial team based on meritocracy, and would have enjoyed watching 50,000 Afrikaners bellowing “Beast” in support of the formidable Tendai Mtawarira.

And all this complicated by many of the non-white players having played a different style of rugby in their formative early years to the Afrikaners, a magnified fault line that even divided the “Brits” and Afrikaner players at times in the past.  No wonder Springboks captain Adriaan Strauss is now calling time on his Test career.  Coach Allister Coetzee’s Test coaching retirement may be called by others, and rather quickly, but South African rugby needs far more than a Test coach scapegoat.

South African rugby has structural and systemic problems that make Welsh rugby’s problems pale into relative insignificance.  At least Wales can pick their best team subject only to the Senior Player Selection Policy curbs at the fringes, and Rob Howley/Warren Gatland do not have to run their team in draft form past the WRU board and the Sports Minister in terms of political and racial acceptability.

Onwards, to the 2017 Six Nations.  And all now calm down, if you please.

This article first appeared on The Viet Gwent – a Welsh rugby blog.

https://thevietgwent.wordpress.com/