Wales may have already lost two coaches from their original pick for the South Seas tour, but at least the playing squad is still intact. Geraint Powell considers whether they might win, develop, do both, or manage neither.
The Welsh squad for the warm-up charity training match against RGC and the summer tour of the Pacific Islands has been announced, albeit the match against Tonga will now be played in Auckland on 16 June as part of a double header at Eden Park with the All Blacks playing Samoa.
Wales will then travel to Apia and play Samoa on 23 June.
The British & Irish Lions tour of New Zealand looms large over this squad. Not just the dozen players selected, with the potential for further call-ups, but also the risk of a Lions hangover next season with injuries and loss of form amongst these tourists.
The Lions have barely enough matches to find their best Test side complete with a game plan, and the lack of pre-departure preparation time is a blot on the concept.
Those who make it to the end of the tour without breaking down will return shattered in mid-July, and especially those who have been playing since last September without an enforced injury break.
This Welsh squad is one that in many ways encapsulates both the strengths and the weaknesses of the entire Warren Gatland era, even if the man himself will be missing with the Lions and Robin McBryde deputises as he did for the 1-1 Test series draw in Japan in 2013.
A squad that is torn between sending a strong 2nd team to face a physical non-set piece battle with Pacific Islanders and developing players to provide greater depth before 2019 and Test team renewal after 2019, with question marks over whether it really achieves either objective.
Preparations have not been helped by the late withdrawal of assistant coaches Danny Wilson and Stephen Jones. This will see Wilson focus upon major internal restructuring at the Blues, with the departure of general manager Billy Millard, and Jones focus upon the Scarlets play-off campaign and which begins with a difficult away match against Leinster in Dublin on 19 May.
The Pacific Islanders, and their avalanche of inevitable incoming “big hits”, is no place to send a team of youngsters if winning is the main long-term aim.
Without even dwelling on what happened to full strength Welsh teams at the 1991, 1999 and 2007 World Cup’s, that 9-34 drubbing by Samoa at Apia in 1994 should stand as a warning.
That said, you could literally hear the groans across social media, especially from West Wales, when veteran “Warrenball” centre Jamie Roberts was appointed captain. Whatever anybody says, tour captains seldom fail to start Test matches and he has exclusively played 12 for a number of years now.
Other captaincy candidates were thin on the ground, especially with injuries to Gethin Jenkins and Luke Charteris, but obviously this appointment has implications for incumbent 12 Scott Williams and for playing Owen Williams as a very different and footballing second five eighth in the 12 jersey.
Only Ashley Beck has been rested, and wisely so given his injury issues until this season and the physical nature of the opposition.
The inclusion of Alex Cuthbert has raised some eyebrows. Having recently started to find some enjoyment and form with his region, many have argued that he should have been given the summer off and a full pre-season to be firing again come the major Test matches next season.
If Islander centres start hitting our centres backwards and the ball is being spilled, recovering the situation will not play to his strengths. It may be that James Davies was unofficially semi-rested, given the openside competition and his Olympic exertions last summer.
Except for Alun Wyn Jones and Ken Owens with the Lions and the injured Gethin Jenkins and Luke Charteris, and the unavailable Bradley Davies, the front 5 is fully loaded. The pre-2003 developed generation of tight forwards that delivered the 2008, 2012 and 2013 Six Nations Championships have either all retired or will do so after the 2019 World Cup and our forward play in the tight is starting to look little more than a holding operation.
The second row selection recognises the failure, with the exception of Jake Ball, to bring through a new generation of locks to replace Alun Wyn Jones, Luke Charteris, Ian Evans and Bradley Davies. Rory Thornton and Cory Hill are likely to do battle to pair up with Jake Ball, with the now injury recovered ”great hope” Adam Beard and especially Seb Davies brought along to gain environment experience and as part of their fast development tracking.
Seb Davies impressed many seasoned Pontypridd RFC observers during his 2015-16 with them from the Blues academy. The selection of young players with little regional experience will always prove controversial, but at least these two demonstrate that the WRU have recognised the lock problem and which was somewhat glaring even at age grade level when the Welsh U20s started some U20s Six Nations matches with two locks from outside the four regional academies.
There is clearly no way back for exiled Richard Hibbard. Given the question marks over his scrummaging, the mobile Kristian Dacey can consider himself lucky that Sam Parry is injured (the smart money is on young Ethan Lewis becoming the long-term future at hooker for the Blues). Both Dacey and Ryan Elias will challenge Scott Baldwin for the No 2 jersey this summer.
The back row is notable for the absence of openside James Davies and for the shortage of No.8’s. With Sam Warburton (captain) and Justin Tipuric with the Lions, the inclusion of (the clever) Ellis Jenkins, the (in-form) Thomas Young and the (vastly underrated) Ollie Griffiths show just what an embarrassment of riches we have in that position.
Without Dan Baker and Olly Cracknell being selected, it looks a little more threadbare elsewhere. Josh Navidi has been a great servant of the Blues in recent seasons, a real reliable workhorse at regional level, but will he challenge for further Test honours in the future?
What will happen at No.8 if James King is injured on the eve of a Test match? Could we even see in one match an open side wolf pack of fetchers in Griffiths, Jenkins and Young playing together, a souped-up version of “Pooper” (David Pocock and Michael Hooper)?
When it comes to the backs, the promising Tomos Williams comes in at scrum-half. Tom Habberfield can consider himself very unlucky indeed, given the selectors know what both Gareth Davies and Aled Davies can offer and the emphasis is upon development if Lloyd Williams is being left behind.
With Rhys Patchell omitted, and unless Gareth Anscombe is preferred at or forced by injury to play at full-back, Anscombe and Sam Davies will compete for the 10 jersey.
Five centres for the RGC warm-up match and 2 Tests does seem a little generous, and I am not sure that even Cory Allen was expecting to be added at the expense of a second specialist full back or at all.
Obviously, Scott Williams could easily be called-up by the Lions in the event of injury, but the big issue here is the captaincy implication upon Owen Williams getting a match at 12.
Does Jamie Roberts still have the legs to play a Test at 13? Tyler Morgan will get a chance to re-establish his credentials, after a season with injury niggles and little front foot ball at the struggling Dragons.
With George North and Liam Williams with the Lions, and with Hallam Amos injured, it is good to see Steff Evans and Keegan Giles included. I would personally, like many others, have liked to have seen Alex Cuthbert get the summer off to get a good pre-season ahead of the Autumn Internationals, and taken along another young wing such as rising regional colleague Aled Summerhill – and let all three young guns fight it out in a Darwinian pathway manner.
The promising North Walian Rhun Williams is the only out and out selected full back, which does not auger well for Dan Evans ever forcing his way into Test contention.
Overall, I have very mixed feelings about this squad. I can’t help feel that this squad is caught between two different goals, satisfying neither. It doesn’t look like a squad that will obviously win in Apia, and yet it has held back on some developmental goals.
Time will tell whether it might have been better to put more emphasis on the latter goal, handing young Ellis Jenkins the captain’s arm band and thinning out the experienced player pool by giving Jamie Roberts and Alex Cuthbert the summer off and asking them to focus on the Autumn Internationals as an insurance policy against injured and tired/out of form Lions.
Forwards: Scott Baldwin (Ospreys), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Adam Beard (Ospreys), Kristian Dacey (Cardiff Blues), Seb Davies (Cardiff Blues), Ryan Elias (Scarlets), Rob Evans (Scarlets), Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Ollie Griffiths (Newport Gwent Dragons), Cory Hill (Newport Gwent Dragons), Ellis Jenkins (Cardiff Blues), Wyn Jones (Scarlets), James King (Ospreys), Samson Lee (Scarlets), Josh Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Nicky Smith (Ospreys), Rory Thornton (Ospreys), Thomas Young (Wasps).
Backs: Cory Allen (Cardiff Blues), Gareth Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues), Aled Davies (Scarlets), Gareth Davies (Scarlets), Sam Davies (Ospreys), Steff Evans (Scarlets), Keelan Giles (Ospreys), Tyler Morgan (Newport Gwent Dragons), Jamie Roberts (captain, Harlequins), Owen Williams (Leicester Tigers), Rhun Williams (Cardiff Blues), Scott Williams (Scarlets), Tomos Williams (Cardiff Blues).
Itinerary
2 June – RGC (Colwyn Bay)
16 June – Tonga (Auckland)
23 June – Samoa (Apia)