It’s wet, it’s cold, your car is too filthy to read the number plate, and no-one has any money. But don’t worry. The pubs are warm, the beer can numb the senses, and the Six Nations starts on Saturday. Geraint Powell reckons Lions year might mean things are a bit red rosey.

 

The second Six Nations Championship after a World Cup, rather than being a possible damp squib in the current four-year development cycle mentality between World Cups, is always keenly anticipated because it is followed by a Lions tour.

The player fight for Lions places in this shop window always spices things up nicely. And 2017 is the biggest Lions tour of them all, New Zealand. The All Blacks in their Aotearoa lair. The last visit in 2005 an unhappy Lions tour, best forgotten. The 1st and 3rd Tests to be played at Eden Park, where the All Blacks haven’t lost a Test match since 1994.

With Warren Gatland on sabbatical to coach the Lions, and with Wales slowly evolving into a more expansive style under caretaker coach Rob Howley, the Welsh squad announcement was keenly anticipated. Alun Wyn Jones replacing under pressure flanker Sam Warburton as captain, but the real focus was on new squad selections.

Tom Young, unfathomably discarded by the Cardiff Blues in 2013, in fine form for Wasps and selected. Owen Williams, lost by the Scarlets to Leicester in 2013, long overlooked to the frustration of many Welsh rugby fans, providing the first big boot “second five eighth” option at 12 since Gavin Henson in 2009.

The rise of Olly Cracknell. Flourishing at the Ospreys and captured through Rupert Moon at RGC1404. The old guard also selected, even Alex Cuthbert, familiar faces that could just as easily be selected and play their pattern. Sam Parry, Tom Habberfield and Ashley Beck, particularly unlucky to lose out on selection for this squad.

The Welsh campaign will very much depend upon the opening two matches, with a short six-day turnaround. Italy away, the ultimate banana skin, the worst time to play them even without their obtaining their first ever win over the Springboks in November, and the old enemy England in Cardiff.

Win both of them and Wales are on a roll. Lose them both, and Italy are likely to throw everything against Wales in Rome, and it could be a long old tournament and one which will fuel the simmering disquiet in Welsh rugby over multiple other issues.

Scotland will again be looking to translate Glasgow’s form onto the Test stage, but there is a feeling that Scotland might be treading water until Gregor Townsend formally takes over as their Test coach in the summer. France are still early in the regime of Guy Noves, still handicapped by the Top 14’s mass import of players, attritional nature and serious aerobic limitations in preparing for Test rugby.

Many observers believe it will come down to a straight “shoot out” between defending Grand Slam champions England, unbeaten in 2016 and with only the All Blacks notably omitted from that fixture list, and a resurgent Ireland side that defeated the All Blacks in Chicago.

Head to head, Eddie Jones versus Joe Schmidt.

An Australian coach, formerly openly dismissive of England’s chances of Test rugby success without central contracts, now charged with making the difficult English set-up work better and including last season helping to negotiate additional access to more players, to be selected later, and to have more preparation time with them in Test camp.

And a New Zealand coach, jointly with Australian David Nucifora, making the Irish national strategic project work better for the Test team. Project players identified for the three-year residency rule, all provincial professional players on central contracts. A few tensions with the provinces over priorities. Ruan Pienaar shown the door at Ulster. The true cost of a young project player scrum-half from New Zealand at Leinster.

England with a mounting injury list but, but forever the country best placed to weather such an injury list. A huge player base. A very different problem to overcome to that facing the sometimes threadbare Celts.

In correctly identifying their best players, England have to filter out so many other good players. If England can beat Wales in Cardiff in Round 2, and they will have an extra day’s turnaround over their hosts, they could well be going to Dublin for their only other away match to conclude the Championship in search of back-to-back Grand Slams. Ireland open with a tricky away match against Scotland first up, and a trip to Cardiff in Round 4 won’t be easy if Wales are themselves on a roll, but Ireland will fancy their chances against England in the concluding match.

My prediction, if pressed, would be for England to fully utilise their three home matches and to retain their Six Nations crown. But for at least one of Wales or Ireland, their players fired up by Lions aspirations, to deny England a back to back Grand Slam/Triple Crown as with the Will Carling and Wavell Wakefield eras.