Back from his extended quarantine in a Japanese fan zone, Harri Morgan reflects on Wales v South Africa this Sunday and suggests there will be pain and nastiness – but no nasty, painful surprises.
“On their day” was the caveat that accompanied any form of confidence among Welsh fans in the run-up to last Sunday’s quarter final clash with France.
It is one of the clichés that tracks French rugby. It reflects their unpredictability, a characteristic that must – with the exception of a few glorious days – be a major point of frustration for followers of Les Bleus.
On Sunday, it was a weapon. The likes of Huget and Medard, so often the personification of ‘joue joue’ conducted themselves with an uncharacteristic sense of logic.
The French pack were big, not just physically, but also in their contrubution. Then there was Virimi Vakatawa who provided the X factor – Fiji style. Drifting from the point, but imagine a Fijian midfield of him and Samu Kerevi with Semi Radradra waiting on the wing. One for another day.
It was to be ‘their’ day.
Then came the Sébastien Vahaamahina swinging elbow, reminiscent of one I had delivered to an opponent in a button-bashing frenzy on Virtual Fighter in one of Tokyo’s Sega arcades, a few weeks prior.
It was a knockout blow. The victims were in blue.
Wales advanced to the semi-final.
In the UK, we often moan at our inability to manage during extreme bouts of weather. In part, this might be because the arrival and timing of the extremities is as unpredictable as French rugby.
Conversely, in countries like Canada the infrastructure can handle mass volumes of snow because they know it will come. They prepare.
This Sunday, Wales do not need to be concerned about which version of their opponent will show up. South Africa will bring the snow – not soft powder. I’m talking a full avalanche job.
Sounds horrific, right? Maybe not.
The Welsh analysis in the lead up to this Sunday’s match can be completed with a much higher degree of confidence.
What they see on the video reel will mirror what they face up to come game day.
It may be a case of better the devil you know, but it will need peak Gatland to plot a means of overcoming a Springbok side that has their notorious nasty back, under Rassie Erasmus.
No bones about it, the Green Machine is a step up from the Blue Meanie when it comes to the crash and bash.
We know that Wales will bring a Forrest Gump approach to running, and an angry Wiganer’s approach to tackling. These are their fundamentals.
The concern following Sunday will be that these fundamentals were not married with quality decision-making and execution when in possession.
In practical terms they must manufacture more victories in the relentless and repetitive battles for the gain line, if they are to win the war.
Wales were gifted, and cashed in their extra life in Oita.
In Yokohama, they will face a superior but more predictable opponent. This is the business end – we are beyond winning habits, belief and the best team losing.
Gatland’s plan, and his side’s execution of it, has to be near perfect if they are to book a spot in the Rugby World Cup Final.