Round four of the Six Nations begins on Friday night and Geraint Powell reckons the tournament is panning out as predicted. England are the dominant force, Scotland are on the up and Wales are on the slide.
In my Six Nations preview on 29 January (https://www.dai-sport.com/six-nations-raw-lions-appeal-red-rose-sharpest/), my prediction (if pressed) was for England to fully utilise their three home matches and to retain their Six Nations crown but for one of Wales or Ireland to deny them a back to back Grand Slam.
As we enter into the final two rounds of this year’s Six Nations Championship, and despite Wales gifting England victory in Cardiff with a botched exit in the 76th minute of a titanic clash, this scenario is still very much in play. If Ireland win in Cardiff tonight (where they have only lost three times since 1983), and Scotland fail to win at Twickenham tomorrow (where they have not won since 1983), the title will come down to the final match of super Saturday a week later in Dublin.
England have won their three matches so far, but they have looked anything but convincing. This is usually the sign of a good side, still collecting the wins whilst playing poorly. They have in particular badly missed the carrying power of Billy Vunipola. England looked anything but convincing in beating France 19-16 in the first round.
They played their “get out of jail free” card in the second round 21-16 win in Cardiff, Wales self-destructing with poor replacements decisions/timings and then a comedy of errors to set-up the match deciding try by the excellent Elliot Daly. The English win not so much gifted by Wales as gift wrapped.
England’s pack were painfully slow to combat Italy’s “Rennie no ruck” tactics at Twickenham, unfathomably so given that two of them had used the same tactic for Wasps against Toulouse in Europe, before pulling clear to win 36-15. Pick and go, always pick and go if the opposition refuses to create rucks. England should be too strong for Scotland tomorrow but, if Ireland win tonight in Cardiff, they will need to rediscover an extra gear for Dublin.
Ireland opened with a tricky away fixture against Scotland, with some key injury absences, and came unstuck 22-27 as Scotland came racing out of the blocks and Stuart Hogg showed all his attacking strengths. Since that setback, Ireland have put Italy away 63-10 in Rome and France 19-9 in Dublin (the biggest Irish winning margin in that fixture in the Six Nations since 1975) and if, as expected, they secure an away win in Cardiff tonight, it will be hard to see beyond them beating England in Dublin a week tomorrow on England’s current form.
Scotland have been revitalised this season, with two good home wins. First against Ireland, and then turning a 9-13 half-time deficit against Wales through a 20-0 second half drubbing into a comfortable 29-13 victory. In between they suffered a 22-16 defeat in Paris, a reminder that heavy packs and a power game can remain a problem for them and why most commentators do not expect Scotland to end their drought at Twickenham since 1983.
Whatever happens now, and a Scottish win tomorrow would throw the Six Nations title race wide open, it is good to see Vern Cotter reaping some reward before he departs for much of the good work he has been doing behind the scenes and which will set-up Gregor Townsend nicely.
Wales are now staring at a potentially nightmare scenario, yet again falling out of the top 8 of World Rugby’s rankings ahead of the pool draw for a World Cup if they lose to both Ireland and France. Another pool of death in 2019 would await Wales.
A surprisingly unconvincing 33-7 win over Italy in Rome followed by that snatching defeat from the jaws of victory performance against England. The 13-29 capitulation at Murrayfield not only ending title aspirations, but causing much further soul searching and debate in Wales about our pro game structures and (Warren Gatland sabbatical) national squad set-up. An apparent absence of trusted player depth, footballing skills, clear headed player thinking under pressure, and clinical finishing when line breaks were made and opportunities created.
There is not much confidence in Wales about a victory tonight, although a “backs to the wall” rousing victory is by no means beyond this group of players if everything clicks, and the success of the Welsh 2019 World Cup campaign may hinge upon whether we beat France in Paris a week tomorrow. Warren Gatland cannot return quickly enough, from a Welsh perspective.
France are showing signs of significant improvement under Guy Noves, beating Scotland at home and then pushing England and Ireland all the way, but they are still very much a work in progress. The excellent form of Louis Picamoles, now exiled at Northampton, serving only to raise even more concerns about player conditioning levels in the Top14. Talk even of central contracts for the French Test squad, from the new FFR President himself.
Once again, Italy find themselves at the bottom of the table. Tactically out thinking England at Twickenham, due to Brenden Venter and Conor O’Shea, but having already suffered big home defeats to Wales and Ireland. Will they be able to beat either France at home tomorrow or Scotland away a week later, to dampen down the calls for Italian relegation and Georgian promotion by those less concerned with the commercial aspects of the Six Nations? The neutrals will hope so.