Italian players sing their anthem before their game against Scotland. Pic: Getty Images.

Italy Are Bad, But They Are Not Hopeless . . . And Celebration-Mode Wales Need To Get The Job Done Before The Drinks Arrive

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Wales finish their Six Nations campaign at home to Italy, where a win for Wayne Pivac’s side could lead to a third-placed finish. The Italians have lost 36 consecutive matches in the tournament, but Tomas Marks says the Azzurri have reason to remain hopeful, despite the weight of statistics piling up against them.

“Everyone tells them they’re bad and they believe it,” says from Conor O’Shea about Italian rugby.

Over the last 36 matches in the Six Nations, Italy – who play Wales in Cardiff on Saturday in the final round of the Six Nations – have allowed too many episodes of self-doubt to affect their performances.

Italy are 14th in the men’s World Rugby rankings and face Wales at the Principality Stadium with their host currently placed eighth.

The Italians have beaten Wales just twice and drawn against them once in the past but Italy do have 23 tier one victories including a win against South Africa in 2016.

Their development, though, has always been uneven and Italy are once again huge underdogs for this match.

But there are several green shoots in their game that they could challenge Wales on what is dubbed Super Saturday.

In Monty Ioane they have the player who has broken the most tackles in the Six Nations with an impressive 14 busts.

 

Ioane is the nephew of former Australian winger Digby Ioane and he’s a multi-threat from counter-attack, guard attack and in anticipating attacking kicks in the opposition chip zones.

There has been a common theme of attacking box kicks from the Italian scrum halves, Callum Braley and Stephen Varney, to Ioane in several matches and Wales need to be aware of this threat.

Another unique statistic from Italy is their penalty count as they have only conceded 37 penalties in the whole Championship which is testament to captain Michele Lamaro and coach Kieran Crowley’s leadership.

This is very unlike any other Italian team over recent years.

Three of their tries last week against Scotland were scored as they went “eyeball to eyeball” with the defence and played more confrontational rugby.

If you think of the all the great Italian players like Diego Dominguez, Alessandro Troncon, Martin Castrogiovanni, the Bergamasco brothers, Mauro and Mirco, and the wonderful Sergio Parisse, they all loved taking the game to the opposition.

This style is evident from the Italian defence this season, They want to make dominant tackles and they are second in the Championship with 29 positive hits.

They also might have an emerging star at full back as Ange Capuozzo starts his first game for the Azzurri.

 

Capuozzo only played 35 minutes last week but he seems to have some Shane Williams similarities.

Despite being slightly taller at 5ft 9, he is only 67kg which is similar to Williams on his international debut.

Capuozzo plays his rugby for FC Grenoble and he’s adept on the wing, full back and can also play at nine.

Last week, he showed some resilience as his first touch was a missed tackle on Darcy Graham as the Scot scored, but the young Italian bounced back with a brace of tries.

He stepped and scored past Stuart Hogg and he brushed off more tacklers for his second try.

Having Capuozzo at full back will help Paolo Garbisi at outside-half, as the former can distribute and be another playmaker in phase play.

I’m excited to see his development over the next few years as he’s likely to get much better since he’s joining Toulouse next season and he will also gain more international experience for Italy.

The one big advantage of Wales playing France on a Friday night is that they have had an extra day of recovery for this international. Small margins mean a lot in international rugby.

 

The Welsh coaches and senior players will have identified several areas of weakness in the Italian team and these are the areas they will target to dominate in Cardiff.

Wales dominated the kicking battle last week and Dan Biggar will look to do the same this time.

Italy have a poor kicking strategy and it leads to opposition tries if they fail to exit efficiently from their own half.

Twice against the Scots, they kicked poorly and it resulted in Hogg counter-attacking and finding space down the 15-metre channel.

On another occasion, Italy failed to exit from a scrum as they tried to use Garbisi’s left foot in the wide channel, but it failed to find touch, which eventually resulted in a Graham try.

The king of interceptions, Gareth Davies, will have identified that Braley likes to give a long ten-metre passes to his forwards, which is very inviting for a poacher like Davies.

I won’t be surprised if he manages to grab himself an interception try.

Wales’ attacking coach Stephen Jones should have identified some key areas to exploit with the Italian defence.

I’m sure he would have discussed counter-attacking opportunities with Jonny McNicholl, poor guard defenders with the half-backs and curious wingers, and I will bet my mortgage that they will try the same midfield scrum play as the Scots so Owen Watkin can score his second international try.

Italy were very inaccurate in the contact area last week with players like Rory Darge, George Turner and Matt Fagerson gaining several turnovers.

Gethin Jenkins, the Wales defence coach, and contact area specialist Gareth Williams will have collaborated this week on the defensive opportunities for the team.

Italy were isolated on a number of occasions from carries off nine, with big separation between the ball carrier and supporting players.

Dillon Lewis and Josh Navidi will be patiently waiting for these opportunities and they will target the contact areas containing the starting props and Marco Fuser, the second row, given their slow speed to that carry.

Wales gained much credibility last week as their kicking, fitness and line-out defence was superior to France.

 

They were also able to go toe-to-toe with France for the whole 80 minutes, which bodes well for future tournaments.

Last week, Scotland made five visits to the Italian 22 and scored four tries. This is how ruthless Wales will need to be to give Dan Biggar and Alun Wyn Jones the win they deserve on their respective milestones.

It’s unlikely that this will be Italy’s first win in the tournament for seven years, but for this generation they will need to take inspiration from their football heroes.

Not long ago, they were rock bottom but are now European Champions.

Since their last Six Nations victory, Italy have had three head coaches – including Irishman O’Shea – and it’s probably time to trust a new coach and let Crowley develop this generation into winners and not self-doubters.

The Italians recently made a documentary about “Facing Goliath” – their story of taking on the mighty All Blacks.

Could today be the day they fire a stone from their sling and slew the mighty Alun Wyn Jones on his 150th cap?

Probably, not.

 

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