Judgement Day

The four regions met in Judgement Day last week. Pic: WRU.

The Final Judgement . . . Welsh Regions Are Bowed But Not Quite Broken

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The season could well end for the Welsh regions on Saturday, if the Scarlets are unable to beat Glasgow in their European Challenge Cup semi-final. For many, there would be a sigh of relief. But within the endless trauma and turmoil, Daniel Parker claims there can be some reason for optimism – youth will have its fling.

When the Welsh rugby history books of the future are written, the 2022/23 season will be denoted as a haunted campaign.

The spectre of contractual and financial chaos has loomed large over the professional game for much of the last year; distorting not just the course of a troubled Six Nations for the national side, but any sense of stability or progress for the four Welsh regions.

The new six-year financial agreement signed by the Professional Rugby Board and the Dragons, Ospreys, Scarlets and Cardiff last month was a mighty relief for all concerned; though few would be willing to rest on their laurels now or assume that a durable, future-proof solution has been secured.

Even so, we have at least ended a torrid few months with four regions intact – something that looked far from a given in February or March.

Moreover, a Scarlets win in the European Challenge Cup semi-final this weekend would provide a fragment of hope amid the detritus of the last 12 months.

The whole of Wales will be wishing the men from the west well in their bid to lift the gloom surrounding the domestic game.

With that in mind, it’s too soon to label the 2022/23 season as one of abject failure on the field for Welsh rugby. But thereโ€™s no hiding from the fact that itโ€™s been pretty damn dismal.

Aside from a smattering of strong European performances, and an occasional rare win over an Irish province or South African side, thereโ€™s been precious little to cheer about.

Yet again, no Welsh side featured in (or even flirted with) the URC top eight; and the gap in quality between our regions and their leading Celtic competitors (not just the nigh-on-invincible Leinster, but the likes of Ulster, Glasgow and Munster) was all too often a vast chasm.

Even Benetton Treviso, the URCโ€™s worst performing side as recently as 2021, defeated every Welsh region in league or cup competition this term.

Cardiff deserve credit for ending the season as the highest-placed region – even if the Welsh Shield currently feels like the kind of condescending prize a primary school teacher gives to one of the naughty kids during a slightly less badly-behaved week.

The former Blues did show glimpses of real quality though; notably in dominant European Challenge Cup displays against Newcastle and Brive, as well as a remarkable 35-0 victory against the Sharks in Durban last November.

The Cardiff playing squad also responded well on the pitch to the external controversies that book-ended their season: an ugly incident at a Grangetown pub earlier in the season, and the suspension of head coach Dai Young on the eve of the Judgement Day fixture against the Ospreys.

However, the Arms Park outfit’s precarious financial position continues to cast an ominous shadow.

Late on Thursday night, they quietly announced that no less than 16 players in total were leaving, including stalwarts such as Lloyd Williams and fellow Welsh internationals Jarrod Evans, Rhys Priestland, Dillon Lewis, Kirby Myhill, Willis Halaholo, Josh Navidi, Kristian Dacey and Kirby Myhill.

Just how close to the precipice Cardiff came remains to be seen, but it seems unlikely the region would have survived the 2022/2023 campaign in their current iteration without an emergency cash injection from the late Peter Thomas.

In 2021, chief executive Richard Holland glibly talked up the prospects of a future tranche of new private investment in the region as a direct response to their controversial retro-branding.

This clearly hasnโ€™t materialised: a conundrum which will hit home all the more acutely in light of a meagre WRU settlement for the regions and the absence of Thomasโ€™s generosity as a reliable fall-back.

In Gwent, Dai Flanagan is gradually helping to re-instil a sense of cohesion and promising shoots of an enterprising rugby identity at the Dragons.

He has the full backing of the Rodney Parade faithful, who understandably felt that the only way was up at the conclusion of Dean Ryan’s disastrous tenure.

Yet the end-of-season stats still paint a grim picture for the Men of Gwent: a 15th place finish in the URC, the lowest number of tries scored of any team in the competition, and just four wins from 18 games (an improvement on two wins in 2021/22, but not much to write home about).

It’s not that there haven’t been encouraging displays, though. The season curtain call against the Scarlets saw the Dragons attack with the kind of power and precision which fans have been craving; with back-rowers Taine Basham and Aaron Wainwright providing Wales selectors with a timely reminder of their credentials ahead of the World Cup.

Defensive discipline has been a real problem though, (the 73 points shipped to Glasgow is a case in point), as has composure in close encounters: the late losses at home to smash-and-grab raids from the Sharks, Cardiff and Connacht were all examples of potential confidence-boosting wins that got away.

The affable Flanagan speaks with passion and a quiet sense of determination about his ambition to restore Gwent to its traditional mantle as a Welsh rugby heartland, and he has certainly helped to restore some pride in the beleaguered Dragons jersey this term.

His next challenge will be to hone a much-needed winning mentality, an altogether more difficult proposition. The man from the Rhymney Valley may need to consider if his coaching team โ€“ which he inherited from his hapless predecessor โ€“ needs a shake-up to match his ambitions.

In West Glamorgan, Toby Boothโ€™s Ospreys can at least feel pleased with how they matched up to the continentโ€™s big boys in this seasonโ€™s Champions Cup.

Two superb wins over reigning French champions Montpellier and the first-ever Welsh triumph away at Leicester Tigers in European competition are not to be sniffed at.

Things were less pretty in the URC; with a disappointing 13th place finish and some particularly bad days at the office โ€“ notably the regionโ€™s record league defeat away at Munster โ€“ leaving a bitter taste in the mouth.

On the plus side, a healthy cohort of Welsh up-and-comers at the Swansea.com Stadium showed they were ready to make the step up to the next level; among them Keiran Williams, Keelan Giles, Rhys Davies, Morgan Morris (who ended the season as the regionโ€™s top tackler and top carrier), Dewi Lake, Harri Deaves and the departing Joe Hawkins.

The Ospreys will not relish the long summer break, with transfer speculation mounting over the future of key front rowers Nicky Smith and Tomas Francis, and Gareth Anscombe another likely departure.

The region must also quickly prepare for the almost unthinkable prospect of life without Alun Wyn Jones; while the loss of Dan Lydiate will be keenly felt too.

The exits of young talents Ethan Roots, Tiaan Thomas-Wheeler and the aforementioned Hawkins are also a set-back for Booth, and Englishman who increasingly seems to survey the state of the Welsh game with an air of resigned bemusement.

Thereโ€™s been an even bigger exodus from the other side of the Loughor Bridge, with the Scarlets set to say a reluctant hwyl fawr to 15 members of their current playing squad.

Among them are Wales legend Leigh Halfpenny, Tongan powerhouse Sione Kalamafoni, Rhys Patchell, Dane Blacker, WillGriff John, Javan Sebastian and a retiring Aaron Shingler.

Even before the financial agreement between the WRU and the regions was reached, you sensed the West Walians would need to adjust their slightly lop-sided playing squad (which currently contains six hookers and only five dedicated back-three players) but their hand has been forced slightly past the point of comfort.

The confusion surrounding the future of the Scarletsโ€™ most-important feeder club โ€“ Llanelli RFC โ€“ has also cast a shroud of uncertainty over the off-season in Carmarthenshire.

On the field, the Scarlets went from being the worst-performing region earlier in the season to the only one with anything to play for in the dying embers of 2022/23.

Dwayne Peel – who was under genuine pressure following a slew of disappointing defeats in the lead up to Christmas – deserves credit for steadying the ship; though it should be noted that this is the second campaign in a row when the Parc y Scarlets outfit have had to play frantic catch-up after a frustratingly slow start.

Success in the Challenge Cup would silence any of Peelโ€™s lingering doubters for now, but the former Wales scrum-half will still feel he has a point to prove when the URC returns in the autumn.

If it wasnโ€™t already clear, we are now living in the era of Welsh rugby austerity.

The regionsโ€™ reported operating budgets for next year โ€“ which are believed to be considerably lower than any of their Irish, Scottish or Italian counterparts, as well as the 11 sides in the English Gallagher Premiership and all 30 sides in Franceโ€™s top two domestic leagues โ€“ will set the tone for 2023/2024.

As a result, we are already witnessing the biggest summer overhaul in Welsh professional rugby since the collapse of the Celtic Warriors in 2004.

For all our regions, building from scratch โ€“ or at least something close to it โ€“ is the order of the day.

Can it be done? Could a Welsh region emerge rejuvenated from the carnage, ร  la Saracens?

At the moment it seems unlikely, but there is at least one thing we can all look forward to next season: more game time and more opportunities for young Welsh talent.

At the Scarlets, 22-year-old duo Sam Costelow and exciting new signing Ioan Lloyd will engage in an intriguing battle for the number 10 jersey, while Carwyn Tuipulotu โ€“ one year their junior โ€“ should finally get a full campaignโ€™s worth of action under his belt at No. 8.

Planning for a future without stalwarts Jonathan Davies and Scott Williams also seems a priority for Peel, who has rewarded homegrown young centres Joe Roberts, Ioan Nicholas and Eddie James with new contracts.

At the Dragons, the departure of Will Rowlands is a blow, but there will be a huge opportunity for Ben Carter to restake a claim with Welsh selectors.

Even the loss of Ross Moriarty – who Flanagan recently hailed as one of his favourite players – isnโ€™t a major blow given the Gwent regionโ€™s wealth of Welsh back-row talent under the age of 30 (Aaron Wainwright, Taine Basham, Harrison Keddie and Ollie Griffiths are all formidable assets).

Behind the scrum there should also be more chances to shine for gifted young fly-half Will Reed; a returning Aneurin Owen at centre; pacey full-back David Richards; and the increasingly impressive Angus Oโ€™Brien, who has been one of the form regional players of the season.

Dane Blacker will also look to make an impact after signing from the Scarlets.

At the Ospreys, look out for Ystradgynlais product Iestyn Hopkins โ€“ hotly tipped for future international honours by Wales icon James Hook โ€“ who, like Will Reed at the Dragons, plays with a confidence that belies his years.

The absence of Lydiate โ€“ and potentially, a gradual scaling-back from regular action for the iconic Justin Tipuric โ€“ will only see the back-row stock of Harri Deaves, Jac Morgan and Morgan Morris grow and grow.

Rhys Davies will also look to cement his starting place at lock in the absence of Alun Wyn Jones, though 6ft 7in Gower behemoth James Fender will be waiting in the wings.

And whilst Cardiff may be slightly hesitant to enter a URC and European Champions Cup campaign without the services of a Josh Navidi, Jarrod Evans, Dillon Lewis, Willis Haloholo, Dmitri Arhip, Max Llewelyn and (in all probability) Liam Williams, all is not lost.

In the backs, there will be more openings for Ben Thomas and high-velocity speedster Theo Cabango.

Up front, Rhondda props Kieron Assiratti and Corey Domachowski will relish the opportunity to build on the progress they have made this season; while Aberdareโ€™s Thomas Young has been the regionโ€™s form player in 2023 and looks the long-term replacement both for Navidi and the injury-blighted Ellis Jenkins.

Thereโ€™s reason for each Welsh region to look ahead to the end of the summer with trepidation, especially with the prospect of more departures now impossible to stave off.

But, amid the flurry of anger and frustration surrounding a national sport in crisis, the faces of Welsh rugbyโ€™s future may be just about to step into the spotlight.

If the 2022/23 season was a tale of damage control for our regions, 2023/24 may be the year when caution is thrown to the wind and youth gets its chance like never before.

Read more about Judgement Day

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